The new Time to Exit tool uses machine learning to predict the likelihood that a VC-backed company will exit within one, three, or five years
PitchBook, the leading private capital market intelligence platform, today announced the launch of Time to Exit, a new predictive tool within its VC Exit Predictor that forecasts when a venture-backed company is likely to exit. Powered by machine learning, Time to Exit estimates the probability of a successful exit within one, three, or five years, bringing timing intelligence to a question that has long relied on manual modeling or instinct. The tool arrives as venture exits rebound from a prolonged drought — IPOs are returning and M&A is picking up — but the recovery is uneven, making the question of when more consequential than ever. Timing shapes nearly every decision in venture capital, from how general partners size portfolio reserves to how limited partners evaluate fund performance and plan for liquidity, yet existing tools could signal whether and how a company might exit while offering little insight into when.
"For venture investors, knowing whether a company will exit has always been only half the question — the harder part is knowing when," said Andrew Akers, Associate Director, Quantitative Research at PitchBook. "Exit timing has become one of the most pressing questions across the industry, shaping everything from fund returns to how LPs plan for liquidity. Time to Exit brings real data to a decision that has long relied on instinct, giving investors a more consistent way to anticipate when an exit is likely."
Time to Exit is the newest addition to PitchBook's VC Exit Predictor, which launched in 2023. The tool already estimates whether a company will exit and how — through a public listing or an acquisition. Now it also forecasts when. These estimates update daily as a company's profile evolves, incorporating market conditions, employee data, fundraising pace, and time since last funding round, among other factors.
Available within Market Analysis on the PitchBook Platform, the combined analysis supports workflows across the private capital lifecycle:
- Deal sourcing: Screen for companies by likely to exit timing and outcome, and prioritize those closest to a near-term liquidity event.
- Portfolio monitoring: Track how a company's exit probability and expected timing shift quarter over quarter to inform follow-on and reserve decisions.
- LP reporting: Replace informal projections with model-driven estimates of when capital is likely to be returned.
- Benchmarking: Compare exit profiles — likelihood, path, and timing — across companies, sectors, and geographies.
"Private markets continue to experience extended holding periods where investment cycles are stretching, and LPs have more infrequent liquidity events," said Nizar Tarhuni, Executive Vice President of Research and Market Intelligence. "With Time to Exit, both allocators and GPs have a tool to help them better anticipate and model their expected liquidity outcomes. This offers a signal that touches every consequential decision in the fund lifecycle, providing data-backed predictions where the industry has historically relied on assumption."
Time to Exit joins a growing body of proprietary, machine learning–driven research from PitchBook's quantitative research team. Following the launch of PitchBook Valuation Estimates earlier this year, the team continues to turn PitchBook's private market data into forward-looking signals that help investors price, time, and manage their investments with greater confidence. Together with generative AI experiences like PitchBook Navigator, these tools reinforce PitchBook's position as a trusted, independent authority on private market intelligence.
To learn more about PitchBook’s VC Exit Predictor, click here.
About PitchBook, a Morningstar company
As the pulse of private capital markets, PitchBook delivers trusted, real-time data, research, and technology to help investors, dealmakers, and innovators make decisions with confidence. Its products provide comprehensive information on companies, investors, funds, deals, and people, along with tools that help professionals analyze market activity and make informed decisions. Founded in 2007, PitchBook today serves more than 100,000 clients worldwide and is recognized as the leading source of private capital market intelligence. PitchBook has grown to over 3,000 employees across offices in Seattle, San Francisco, New York, London, Singapore, Mumbai, and other global locations. Since 2016, PitchBook has operated as a subsidiary of Morningstar, Inc.
For more information, visit www.pitchbook.com.
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