Toast (NYSE:TOST) released its latest Restaurant Trends Report, providing insight into the state of the U.S. restaurant industry through an analysis of aggregated data from selected cohorts of restaurants and in select U.S. states on the Toast platform, which serves approximately 164,000 locations as of December 31, 2025. Read the full Restaurant Trends Report on Data by Toast.
Key takeaways from the report:
- Premium growth: Sales for barista-crafted drinks increased in 2025 compared to 2024, including lattes (+4.0%), espresso shots (+3.3%), and Americanos (+1.4%).1
- Staple declines: Traditional beverages pulled back, with regular hot drip coffee sales down 3.3% and cold brew down 2.2% year-over-year.
- Alternative caffeine: Consumers are increasingly choosing convenience for their caffeine fix; energy drinks (+8.7%) and diet sodas (+7.4%) saw significant sales growth.
- Average rates: Both full-service restaurant (FSR) and quick-service restaurant (QSR) tips held steady at 19.2% and 15.8%, respectively in Q4 2025.2
- Top tipping state: Delaware still leads the nation with an average tip of 21.8%.
- Lowest tipping state: California remains at the bottom of the list, averaging 17.2%
*Note: Tipping is not limited to drink transactions.
Coffee has been a hot topic in the last few years — but more recently it isn't a new viral coffee drink that has been grabbing attention. It's been the price increase that has been turning heads.
There are a few reasons why your favorite brew has been pricier recently, whether in the grocery store aisle or at the cafe counter. These factors, which include climate, demand, input costs, and overhead, have affected everyone's wallets. But have our buying habits changed at all?
To find out, Toast analyzed same-store sales across a cohort of restaurants on the platform between January 2024 and December 2025 to determine which types of coffee drinks guests are ordering and how their habits may have changed compared to 2024. It turns out that some upstarts may be overtaking classic American staples like the ever-reliable cup of drip coffee. All restaurant types were included in the analysis.
Drink categories seeing a pullback
Coffee & tea staples
- Green tea: Experienced the sharpest drop at -4.9%.
- Black tea: Declined by -3.4%.
- Regular hot drip coffee: A primary staple that saw a -3.3% decrease.
- Cold brew: The popular chilled favorite fell by -2.2%.
Other beverage category declines
- Regular soda: Sales decreased by -2.3%.
- Cappuccinos: Saw a more moderate dip of -0.4%.
- Frappés: Remained nearly flat but trended downward at -0.6%.
Let's start with the losers: regular hot drip coffee (-3.3%) and our beloved cold brew (-2.2%) both saw lower sales in 2025 than in 2024. Some staples fared even worse, with black tea down -3.4% and green tea down -4.9%, while regular soda (-2.3%), frappés (-0.6%), and cappuccinos (-0.4%) decreased a bit more moderately.
So if these old reliables are down, what's taking their place?
Drink categories experiencing growth
Caffeine in a can
- Energy drinks: Saw the largest surge with an 8.7% increase as consumers shifted toward convenient, ready-to-drink options.
- Herbal teas: Experienced significant growth of 8.6%.
- Diet sodas: Increased by 7.4% compared to 2024.
Handcrafted and barista-made coffee
- Lattes: Increased by 4.0%.
- Espresso shots: Increased by 3.3%.
- Americanos: Increased by 1.4%.
- Macchiatos: Increased by 0.6%.
It turns out that instead of mugs, Americans were reaching for cans for their caffeine boost. Energy drinks grew a whopping 8.7%, while diet sodas increased 7.4% in 2025 compared to 2024. Herbal teas also experienced a big bump at 8.6%, suggesting some are looking for a caffeine-free fix.
But some coffee categories did grow, specifically those handcrafted by a barista — drinks that many people don't have the skills or time to make at home.
Espresso drinks, including lattes (+4.0%), espresso shots (+3.3%), Americanos (+1.4%), and macchiatos (+0.6%), all increased sales in 2025. As mentioned earlier, frappés (-0.6%) and cappuccinos (-0.4%) decreased ever so slightly.
What this could signal:
- Americans are willing to pay for these handcrafted drinks. They may be pulling back on orders that they can easily make at home or buy at the grocery store, like a regular drip coffee or a cold brew. It could also signal that while people may be drinking coffee at home, others value curling up in a cozy cafe with a specialty-crafted drink.
- While at-home espresso machines are increasingly popular, the barrier to entry is high, and that luxury may be reserved for those in larger income brackets with more counter space. Pulling shots of espresso and steaming milk at home requires a little more skill than drip coffee, which could be one reason those drinks are overperforming while others are not.
- It could also be that the rise in prices means Americans visiting coffee shops are springing for the treats. Maybe you aren't a daily latte drinker, but if you find yourself in a cafe, you may be more inclined to treat yourself to something nice – especially if you may be cutting back elsewhere. It could also signal that people with higher disposable income aren't slowing their spending, and buyers have less price sensitivity when it comes to their daily coffee run.
For more insights into coffee trends, drinks, and tipping, read the full Restaurant Trends Report on Data by Toast.
1Methodology: Toast analyzed transactions at Toast restaurants in 2025 and compared them to 2024 to determine which drink category had more or fewer transactions than the prior year. Toast used a cohort of same-store restaurants on the platform since January 1, 2024 through December 31, 2025. All restaurant types were included in the analysis.
2About tipping: Each quarter, when we release the Restaurant Trends Report we look into the state of tipping in the U.S. The numbers that we report are from applicable restaurants on the Toast platform (restaurants that have tipping enabled) and where a tip was added to the order via a card or digital payment. In the previous sections of this report we used a cohort of same-store restaurants on the Toast platform from Jan. 1, 2024 through Dec. 31, 2025.
For tipping we use a "snapshot" view and look at all transactions that included a tip in the previous quarter, and break those numbers down by full-service restaurants and quick-service restaurants.
About the Restaurant Trends Report:
The Restaurant Trends Report, powered by Toast, uncovers key trends across the restaurant industry through aggregated sales data from a selection of cohorts of restaurants on the Toast platform, which has approximately 164,000 locations as of Dec. 31, 2025. This information is provided for general informational purposes only, and publication does not constitute an endorsement. Toast does not warrant the accuracy or completeness of any information, text, graphics, links, or other items contained within this content. Individual results may vary. Toast does not guarantee you will achieve any specific results if you follow any advice herein. It may be advisable for you to consult with a professional such as a lawyer, accountant, or business advisor for advice specific to your situation. The Restaurant Trends Report is not indicative of the operational performance of Toast or its reported financial metrics.
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