Visa 2026 Global Economic Outlook: AI Adoption and Shifting Trade Patterns Drive Economic Transformation Beneath Steady Growth
Visa forecasts structural economic transformation driven by AI adoption, supply chain rewiring and accelerating business investment that supports stable 2.7% global growth
- Global GDP projected to grow 2.7% in 2026, with surface stability masking fundamental shifts in trade, technology and demographics
- Rise in business investment gains should offset softening consumption
- Small businesses outpace consumers in AI adoption, with AI-integrating firms showing significantly higher transaction growth
Visa (NYSE:V), a global leader in digital payments, today released its Global Economic Outlook for 2026, revealing that while headline growth appears steady at 2.7%, the global economy is undergoing fundamental transformation driven by artificial intelligence adoption, evolving trade networks and shifting investment patterns.
Analysis from Visa Business and Economic Insights shows that beneath the surface of stable GDP growth, three powerful forces are rewiring the structure of global commerce: generative AI acceleration, supply chain fragmentation and demographic pressures.
"What appears to be an 'average' year is actually a period of profound economic transformation," said Visa Chief Economist, Wayne Best. "Consumer spending remains solid, providing a stable foundation, while business investment accelerates to drive the next phase of expansion. The economy is being fundamentally rebuilt by AI, new trade patterns and digital innovation."
Key Findings
Steady Growth Masks Structural Transformation: Global GDP is projected to grow 2.7% in 2026, down slightly from 2.9% in 2025. While headline figures suggest continuity, three structural forces are reshaping the economy: geonomics displacing globalization, generative AI accelerating across sectors and population aging pressuring growth. The composition and drivers of economic expansion are changing rapidly beneath this surface stability.
Investment Accelerates as Consumption Moderates: Consumer spending remains resilient at 2.4% growth in 2026, moderating from 2.7% in 2025, while inflation eases from 3.4% to 3.1%. Business investment is accelerating, driven by AI infrastructure buildout and declining policy uncertainty, offsetting the consumption slowdown. This shift from consumption-led to investment-led growth should support commercial payments as business activity resumes.
Supply Chains Rewire; Trade Patterns Fragment: Intra-regional trade now drives two-thirds of global trade growth as supply chains shorten and companies broaden supplier bases in response to tariffs and de-risking mandates. This restructuring is fueling business travel growth, particularly in mining and technology, and driving faster recovery in cross-border commercial payments versus domestic corporate payments.
GenAI Adoption Transforms Small Business Competition: Small businesses now adopt generative AI faster than consumers, with AI-integrating firms showing significantly higher transaction growth. This technology enables lean teams to achieve scale previously requiring much larger workforces, potentially redefining what it means to be a "small business." While North American tech hubs lead in absolute adoption, faster growth abroad suggests global markets may produce the next wave of AI-driven business models.
The baseline forecast of 2.7% GDP growth reflects resilient fundamentals: stable consumer spending, accelerating business investment, and continued AI adoption across sectors, balanced against policy uncertainties and demographic pressures.
"The global economy demonstrated remarkable resilience in 2025 despite significant policy changes," Best said. "As we enter 2026, the pace of structural transformation is accelerating, creating challenges and opportunities. Organizations that combine timely insights with operational agility will be best positioned to navigate this evolving landscape and capitalize on growth drivers like AI adoption and evolving trade networks."
Read the full Visa 2026 Global Economic Outlook report here and take a deeper dive into the key findings on Visa Perspectives.
About the Visa 2026 Global Economic Outlook
The Visa 2026 Global Economic Outlook provides broad analysis of global economic trends, regional forecasts and sector-specific insights based on proprietary Visa transaction data, economic modeling, and analysis of emerging trends. The report includes detailed projections for consumer spending, business investment, inflation, and trade patterns across major economies.
About Visa
Visa (NYSE:V) is a world leader in digital payments, facilitating transactions between consumers, sellers, financial institutions and government entities across more than 200 countries and territories. Our mission is to connect the world through the most innovative, convenient, reliable and secure payments network, enabling individuals, businesses and economies to thrive. We believe that economies that include everyone everywhere, uplift everyone everywhere and see access as foundational to the future of money movement. Learn more at Visa.com.
Forward-Looking Statement
This release contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of the U.S. Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 that relate to, among other things, our financial outlook. Forward-looking statements generally are identified by words such as "believes," "estimates," "expects," "intends," "may," "projects," "could," "should," "will," "continue" and other similar expressions. All statements other than statements of historical fact could be forward-looking statements, which speak only as of the date they are made, are not guarantees of future performance and are subject to certain risks, uncertainties and other factors, many of which are beyond our control and are difficult to predict. We describe risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed in, or implied by, any of these forward-looking statements in our filings with the SEC. Except as required by law, we DO NOT intend to update or revise any forward-looking statements as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.
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