SEPTEMBER HARVARD CAPS / HARRIS POLL: 70% OF VOTERS OPPOSE GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN, WITH 65% IN FAVOR OF DEMOCRATIC CONCESSIONS

TRUMP JOB APPROVAL STEADY AT 46% WHILE CONGRESSIONAL APPROVAL FALLS 5 PTS. FROM AUGUST

MOST VOTERS UNDERESTIMATE ECONOMIC GROWTH AND OVERESTIMATE INFLATION

85% OF VOTERS SAY CELEBRATION OVER KIRK'S DEATH BY MEDIA PERSONALITIES WAS INAPPROPRIATE

71% OF VOTERS SUPPORT SINKING SOUTH AMERICAN SHIPS CARRYING DRUGS INTO THE COUNTRY

34% OF AMERICANS FEEL THEY WILL EVENTUALLY LIVE THE AMERICAN DREAM AND 24% BELIEVE THEY ARE LIVING THE AMERICAN DREAM

78% OF VOTERS SAY AMERICANS ARE BETTER OFF WITH FREE ENTERPRISE RATHER THAN SOCIALISM

56% OF VOTERS SUPPORT TRUMP'S GAZA PEACE PLAN

NEW YORK and CAMBRIDGE, Mass., Oct. 6, 2025 /PRNewswire/ -- Stagwell (NASDAQ:STGW) today released the results of the September Harvard CAPS / Harris poll, a monthly collaboration between the Center for American Political Studies at Harvard (CAPS) and the Harris Poll and HarrisX.

President Donald Trump's approval rating is at 46%. Trump's job approval is highest on fighting crime in U.S. cities (50%), immigration (49%), and returning America to its values (48%), and lowest on handling inflation (40%) and tariffs and trade policy (40%). This month's poll also covered public opinion on the economy, political violence, the government shutdown, the American Dream, conflicts in the Middle East, and the war in Ukraine. Download the key results here.

"Voters' outlook on the country remains largely the same with strong opposition to the government shutdown," said Mark Penn, Co-Director of the Harvard CAPS / Harris poll and Stagwell Chairman and CEO. "They feel the rhetoric of today's political leaders has grown too polarizing and is fueling political violence, and they want leadership that works to unite the country."

CONGRESSIONAL APPROVAL DROPS FROM LAST MONTH

• 40% of voters say the country is on the right track, stable from last month.
• 34% of voters say their personal financial situation is improving (-1 pt., Aug. 2025), particularly among Republican, male, 25-44 y.o., and urban voters.
• The Congressional approval rating is at 32% (-5). The Democratic Party approval rating is at 42% (+1) and the Republican Party approval rating is steady at 47%.
• Among key political figures, voters have the highest net favorable view of Charlie Kirk (+16 net favorable), Erika Kirk (+14), and Volodymyr Zelenskyy (+13).
• 43% of voters say inflation is the most important issue to them personally (-4).

MAJORITY OF VOTERS BELIEVE INFLATION IS ABOVE 3 PERCENT AND THE ECONOMY IS SHRINKING

• 65% of voters believe inflation is above 3 percent (Democrats: 70%; Republicans: 62%; Independents: 64%).
• 56% of voters believe the economy is shrinking rather than growing.
• Voters are split 50-50 on whether Trump's policies are making the U.S. economy stronger or weaker.
• 58% of voters say Trump's tariffs are harming the economy (+3).
• 56% of voters say Trump is losing the battle against inflation.

VOTERS OVERWHELMINGLY OPPOSE GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN

• 70% of voters oppose the government shutdown, with 53% blaming Republicans (Democrats: 76%; Republicans: 31%; Independents: 54%). However, 62% of voters say Republicans will win the shutdown.
• 65% of voters say Democrats should end the shutdown by accepting a continuing resolution at current spending levels (Democrats: 39%; Republicans: 90%; Independents: 63%).
• Voters are split on how the shutdown impacts their vote in the midterm elections, with 8% of Democrats they are more likely to vote for Republicans and 9% of Republicans saying they are more likely to vote for Democrats.
• 55% of voters say the Democrats behind the shutdown are motivated by pleasing their base.

THREE IN FOUR VOTERS BELIEVE TODAY's POLITICAL RHETORIC IS TOO EXTREME, BLAMING IT FOR VIOLENCE

• 75% of voters say the rhetoric of our politicians has become too extreme (Democrats: 83%; Republicans: 65%; Independents: 79%), with 72% saying today's rhetoric is leading to violence.
• 58% of voters say Trump's rhetoric is too extreme. 57% believe the same of rhetoric from leading Democratic and Republican politicians.
• Though more than three-quarters of voters say assassinations of Charlie Kirk (78%), United Healthcare CEO Brian Thompson (77%), and Minnesota Democratic State Representative Melissa Hortman (83%) were unjustified, roughly 1 in 5 say they were justified (Kirk: 22%; Thompson: 23%; Hortman: 17%).
• 53% of voters say Kirk's assassination made the country worse. 32% felt angry, 23% felt nothing, and 18% felt worried.
• 86% of Democrat voters and 83% of Republican voters say it is unjustified to use political violence to advance their party's goals.
• 56% of voters believe America can come together with leadership that tried harder to unify it, including a majority across parties.
• At least two-thirds of voters say assassination attempts on Trump, Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh, Governor Josh Shapiro, and former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi were unjustified.

STRONG MAJORITY OF VOTERS FOUND MEDIA CELEBRATION OF KIRK'S DEATH INAPPROPRIATE BUT SAY SUCH BEHAVIOR IS PROTECTED BY FREE SPEECH

• 85% of voters say it is inappropriate for media personalities to celebrate Kirk's death.
• 62% of voters say the words and actions of those celebrating Kirk's death is protected by the First Amendment and free speech (Democrats: 70%; Republicans: 55%; Independents: 63%).
• Voters are split on whether it was right of TV networks to fire commentators over Kirk comments (Right: 51%; Wrong: 49%).
• 54% of voters oppose the suspension of Jimmy Kimmel, and 58% say Disney was right to reinstate him.
• 64% of voters say social media is operating to encourage political violence today.

MOST OF TRUMP POLICIES CONTINUE TO SEE MAJORITY SUPPORT INCLUDING SINKING BOATS WITH DRUGS, THOUGH A SMALL MAJORITY SAY TRUMP HAS EXCEEDED HIS AUTHORITY AS PRESIDENT

• 18 out of 20 of Trump's policies continue to receive majority support, with his most popular policies being lowering prescription drug prices (86%), deporting illegal immigrants who have committed crimes (78%), and eliminating waste in government expenditures (75%). Adding work requirements to Medicaid programs (42%), tariffs (49%), and deploying the National Guard in cities (51%) are the least popular.
• 71% of voters support the U.S. destroying boats bringing drugs from South America into the country.
• 63% of voters say Trump will not solve the Ukraine war (+4), and 64% of voters say Trump will not solve the Israel-Hamas war.
• 52% of voters say Trump is doing a better job than Joe Biden did as President (-2).
• 52% of voters say Trump is behaving like a strong president instead of a fascist dictator, though 55% say Trump has exceeded his authority as President (Democrats: 83%; Republicans: 24%; Independents: 59%).
• 56% of voters say Trump is not abiding by all court rulings.

AMERICANS OVERWHELMINGLY FAVOR FREE ENTERPRISE OVER SOCIALISM AND BELIEVE IN HARD WORK, BUT A PLURALITY ARE SKEPTICAL THEY WILL EVER ACHIEVE THE AMERICAN DREAM

• 78% of voters say Americans are better off with free enterprise than socialism, including a majority across political, gender, and age groups, though 37% of voters 18-24 y.o. favor socialism.
• 38% of voters, a plurality, believe they will never live the American Dream, while 34% say they will eventually live it and 28% say they are living it now.
• 61% of voters are homeowners, 84% say they own a car, and 54% say they have a job.
• 57% of voters believe hard work can earn them enough to own a house and have a family, with Republican (73%; net +24 vs. Democrat), male (64%; net +14 vs. female), and 25-44 y.o. (62%; net +12 vs. 55-64 y.o.) voters agreeing with the sentiment most.
• 59% of voters say a college education is important to economic success (Democrats: 66%; Republicans: 57%; Independents: 53%; Men: 62%; Women: 55%).
• 53% of voters say America is on the verge of unprecedented economic opportunities, believing younger generations today have advantages others did not. But 57% of voters say AI will make it harder to get a job.

STRONG MAJORITY OF VOTERS VALUE FAMILY AND KIDS, THOUGH YOUNGER VOTERS ARE PRIORITIZING ECONOMIC SUCCESS

• 71% of voters say having a family is very important to them personally, while 55% say the same about economic success.
• 71% of voters say having a family is more important than having a good job (18-24 y.o.: 51%).
• 78% of voters say having children is something they want or wanted.
• 60% of voters have children, though 28% say they do not expect to have any (Democrats: 31%; Republicans: 22%; Independents: 33%; Male: 32%; Female: 24%; 18-24 y.o.: 32%).

MAJORITY OF VOTERS SUPPORT TRUMP'S GAZA PEACE PLAN

• 51% of voters support Trump's handling of the Israel-Hamas conflict (-2 pts., Aug. 2025).
• 56% of voters support Trump's 21-point peace plan to end the conflict, with 70% supporting the plan after being told major Arab governments support it.
• 79% of voters say Israel should accept the plan and 78% say Hamas should accept it. 51% believe Israel has already accepted it, and 64% believe Hamas has rejected it.
• 83% of voters support the plan's demands to release of all hostages and create a path to a Palestinian state.
• 69% of voters agree the long-term answer to the conflict should be a two-state solution between Israel and Palestine.
• 75% of voters support imposing new sanctions on Iran for its continued ambition for nuclear weapons.

TRUMP GIVEN CREDIT FOR HIS EFFORTS TO END WAR IN UKRAINE

• 65% of voters support Trump's efforts to end the war in Ukraine.
• 77% of voters support additional sanctions on Russia to end the war, and 68% believe the Trump administration should continue to arm Ukraine and impose sanctions.
• 57% of voters believe governments that buy Russian oil and gas should be punished with tariffs.
• 79% of voters say Europe should buy oil from the U.S. instead of from Russia.

The September Harvard CAPS / Harris poll survey was conducted online within the United States on October 1-2, 2025, among 2,413 registered voters by The Harris Poll and HarrisX. Follow the Harvard CAPS / Harris poll podcast at https://www.markpennpolls.com/ or on iHeart Radio, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and other podcast platforms. 

About The Harris Poll & HarrisX

The Harris Poll is a global consulting and market research firm that strives to reveal the authentic values of modern society to inspire leaders to create a better tomorrow. It works with clients in three primary areas: building twenty-first-century corporate reputation, crafting brand strategy and performance tracking, and earning organic media through public relations research. One of the longest-running surveys in the U.S., The Harris Poll has tracked public opinion, motivations, and social sentiment since 1963, and is now part of Stagwell, the challenger holding company built to transform marketing.

HarrisX is a technology-driven market research and data analytics company that conducts multi-method research in the U.S. and over 40 countries around the world on behalf of Fortune 100 companies, public policy institutions, global leaders, NGOs and philanthropic organizations. HarrisX was the most accurate pollster of the 2020 U.S. presidential election.

About the Harvard Center for American Political Studies

The Center for American Political Studies (CAPS) is committed to and fosters the interdisciplinary study of U.S. politics.  Governed by a group of political scientists, sociologists, historians, and economists within the Faculty of Arts and Sciences at Harvard University, CAPS drives discussion, research, public outreach, and pedagogy about all aspects of U.S. politics. CAPS encourages cutting-edge research using a variety of methodologies, including historical analysis, social surveys, and formal mathematical modeling, and it often cooperates with other Harvard centers to support research training and encourage cross-national research about the United States in comparative and global contexts. More information at https://caps.gov.harvard.edu/.

Contact:

Carrie Hsu

[email protected]  

 

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