Forecasters Say El Niño Is Developing; Here's What Homeowners Should Know Now

Mercury Insurance explains what the climate pattern is, how it can influence weather and why homeowners should pay attention

LOS ANGELES, June 29, 2026 /PRNewswire/ -- Forecasters are closely monitoring the development of El Niño conditions in the Pacific Ocean, a climate pattern that will influence weather across the United States and around the world. While the impacts vary from year to year, the experts at Mercury Insurance (NYSE/NYSE TX: MCY) want homeowners to understand what El Niño is, how it works and why meteorologists are paying attention.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) recently announced that El Niño conditions have emerged and are expected to strengthen in the months ahead. Historically, El Niño has been associated with shifts in rainfall, storm activity, temperatures and other weather patterns, including across parts of the western and southern United States.

"El Niño is one of the most important climate signals we watch because it can materially shift weather patterns far beyond the Pacific Ocean," said Steve Bennett, Head of Climate Science and Catastrophe Modeling at Mercury Insurance. "While it's too early to know exactly what impacts any one community may experience, El Niño shifts the odds for various weather impacts and gives homeowners a basis to prepare."

Five Things Homeowners Should Know About El Niño

1. El Niño Doesn't Guarantee a Specific Weather Outcome

One of the biggest misconceptions about El Niño is that it guarantees a wet winter or severe weather. In reality, El Niño shifts the odds toward certain weather patterns, but local impacts can vary significantly depending on other atmospheric conditions.

"El Niño influences probabilities, not certainties," Bennett said. "It's an important signal, but it's only one piece of a much larger weather puzzle."

2. California Often Experiences Increased Storm Activity During Strong El Niño Years

Some of the strongest El Niño winters have historically been associated with extremely wet weather across portions of California, especially Southern California. These patterns can be driven by Atmospheric Rivers that bring the most significant rainfall events. But not every El Niño produces the same result. Local impacts depend entirely on where they hit and how strong they are. That is why now is a good time for homeowners to take care of simple maintenance.

3. The Effects Reach Far Beyond California

El Niño affects other states too, but not in the same way everywhere. In Arizona, it can raise the odds of a wet winter. In Texas and Oklahoma, it can sometimes weaken storm patterns that produce hail, tornadoes and damaging winds. El Niño also tends to suppress hurricane activity in the Atlantic. But none of those signals is a guarantee. The background state can shift, but some storms will still form, which is why homeowners should do the simple things that can make a real difference now.

4. Forecast Confidence Improves as the Event Develops

Forecasters can often identify El Niño months before its strongest effects are felt. But while confidence in the broader climate pattern will improve over time, the impacts that matter most to homeowners are driven by individual storm tracks and weather patterns that usually cannot be forecast more than a week or two in advance.

"We may become more confident that El Niño is in place and influencing the broader background pattern," Bennett said. "But the impacts people actually experience will still depend on shorter-term weather patterns that generally only come into focus a week or two in advance. That is why homeowners should pay attention both to the seasonal signal and to local forecasts."

5. Preparation Matters Regardless of the Forecast

Seasonal weather outlooks are useful, but they are not a substitute for basic preparedness. Regardless of how El Niño ultimately unfolds, homeowners can benefit from routine maintenance and simple planning, including inspecting roofs, gutters and drainage areas, trimming hazardous branches, reviewing insurance coverage to understand what is and is not covered, refreshing emergency supplies, and staying current on local forecasts and official alerts.

Why Mercury Is Watching

Weather-related events remain one of the leading causes of property damage across the United States. As part of its ongoing commitment to helping customers prepare for potential risks, Mercury Insurance regularly monitors climate and weather trends that may affect homeowners.

"The value of paying attention to El Niño is not that it tells you exactly what will happen months in advance," Bennett said. "It is that it gives homeowners a reason to take common-sense steps now rather than waiting until bad weather is on the way. If you take care of the basics early, you put yourself in a position to have peace of mind no matter what the season brings."

For more information and homeowner preparedness resources, visit the Mercury Resource Center or the Mercury Catastrophe Center.

About Mercury Insurance

Mercury Insurance (NYSE:MCY) is a multiple-line insurance carrier predominantly offering personal auto, homeowners, renters and commercial insurance through a network of independent agents in Arizona, California, Georgia, Illinois, Nevada, New Jersey, New York, Oklahoma, Texas and Virginia, as well as auto insurance in Florida. Mercury writes other lines of insurance in various states, including commercial, business owners and business auto, landlord, home-sharing, ride-hailing and mechanical protection insurance.

Since 1962, Mercury has provided customers with tremendous value for their insurance dollar by pairing ultra-competitive rates with excellent customer service, through more than 4,200 employees and a network of more than 6,340 independent agents in 11 states. Mercury has earned an "A" rating from A.M. Best, as well as "Best Auto Insurance Company" designations from Forbes and Insure.com. For more information visit www.MercuryInsurance.com or follow the company on LinkedIn, Instagram or Facebook.

Media interested in receiving updates from Mercury can learn more at the Mercury Newsroom.

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SOURCE Mercury Insurance