ASSEMBLY 'ELECTION OUTLOOK' REPORT: 2026 MIDTERMS PROJECTED TO BE THE MOST EXPENSIVE IN HISTORY
Insights from the only global omnichannel media agency with an in-house political practice predicts over $10B in political spending for the 2025-2026 cycle
NEW YORK, Oct. 2, 2025 /PRNewswire/ -- Assembly, a leading media company part of the Stagwell (NASDAQ:STGW) challenger network, is projecting a record $10.1 billion in political advertising spend during the 2025–2026 U.S. election cycle–a 15% increase from the last midterm cycle in 2022–making it the most expensive midterms in history. The estimate come from Assembly's 2026 Election Outlook Report, released today by the agency's industry-leading Politics & Advocacy Practice, which handles planning, activation, and strategy for some of the most high-profile races and issue groups in the country.
The new report underscores that political ad spending will not only collide with commercial advertising but fundamentally reshape the media marketplace in 2026. Assembly highlights:
- Record-Breaking Spend: With political ad spending projected to surpass $10 billion, brands should prepare for inflated costs and tighter inventory, particularly in battleground markets and peak windows.
- Impact Beyond Politics: Political creative has consistently proven its power to shape consumer sentiment, often spilling over into brand perceptions. In 2026, this effect is expected to intensify, creating new challenges for advertisers across categories.
- Urgency for Action: Advertisers must take proactive, concrete steps now to safeguard campaigns. This includes diversifying channel strategies, stress-testing budgets, and/or reassessing media partners to reduce exposure to political disruptions and protect both brand safety and efficiency.
"Political media strategists are the original performance marketers: ruthlessly data-driven, hyper-targeted, and under extreme pressure to deliver results," said Tyler Goldberg, Director of Political Strategy at Assembly. "As we head into the 2026 midterms, the ad market will feel the ripple effects of billions in political spend flooding the system, more so than we have in previous years."
According to Assembly's Politics & Advocacy Practice, the type of campaign and media partners selected will play a decisive role in determining exposure to political disruption. Local broadcast television continues to attract the largest share of political ad dollars, meaning brands with significant broadcast investments should anticipate competition and displacement. By contrast, certain digital platforms that do not accept political advertising may offer partial insulation. However, no advertiser is entirely immune, as heightened political awareness continues to shape consumer sentiment across channels.
Goldberg adds, "Much like political spending itself, the risk to brand advertisers is not evenly distributed. Exposure depends on far more than when or where a campaign is live — it's about where, when, and how advertisers choose to show up. The right strategy and partners can make the difference between being swept up in the political cycle or staying resilient through it."
The Election Outlook Report was developed using Assembly's proprietary Assembly Market Intensity Index (AMII), which measures levels of political saturation in local markets throughout the cycle. AMII is the industry's only tool designed to measure political saturation in local markets throughout an election cycle. AMII quantifies how escalating political ad spend impacts commercial campaigns, making it an essential resource for any advertiser navigating the complexities of election-year media.
Assembly's Politics & Advocacy Practice has planned and activated nearly $1 billion in political advertising since its inception in 2019.
The 2026 Election Outlook Report is available for download at AssemblyGlobal.com/insights.
ABOUT ASSEMBLY
Assembly is a leading global omnichannel media agency that combines data, talent, and technology to drive growth for the world's top brands. We connect powerful brand storytelling with a full range of media capabilities to deliver performance and meaningful business results. Powered by STAGE, our proprietary operating system, and a global team of 2,300 experts across 35 offices, we are committed to purposeful, impactful work. As part of Stagwell, the challenger network redefining marketing, Assembly continues to raise the bar for excellence in the industry.
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SOURCE Assembly